Mitochondrial Clocks...Why The Long Dates?

You may have watched a few pop-sci PBS videos on evolution discussing mtDNA lineages and heard the number 200,000 thrown around a bit, but lets look at where they get this number from and what the data actually says.

When it comes to dating the Mitochondrial molecular clock there are two methods you can use. Pedigree based or Phylogeny based.

Let's look at the difference...

Pedigree Based

Pedigree methods estimate the mutation rate by comparing the mtDNA sequences of a sample of parent/offspring pairs or analyzing mtDNA sequences of individuals from a deep-rooted genealogy. The number of new mutations in the sample is counted and divided by the total number of parent-to-child DNA transmission events to arrive at a mutation rate

What this means is that pedigree based methods are using the observed mutation rates based on empirical data, with no assumptions needed.


Phylogeny Based

Phylogeny based methods are estimated by first reconstructing the haplotype of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of a sample of two or more genetic lineages. A requirement is that the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of the sample of lineages must already be known from other independent sources, usually the archeological record. The average number of mutations that have accumulated since the MRCA is then computed and divided by the TMRCA to arrive at the mutation rate. The human mutation rate is usually estimated by comparing the sequences of modern humans and chimpanzees and then reconstructing the ancestral haplotype of the chimpanzee-human common ancestor. According to the paleontological record the last common ancestor of humans may have lived around 6 million years ago.

This is the method used to get these long dates, this is where it comes from. Do you see the amount of unprovable assumptions needed for this method? They not only let the assumed humans and chimps split 6 my ago dictate their results, they also assume the archaeological record is accurate.

You see, they have multiple underlying unprovable assumptions and then calculate the numbers based on these assumptions...

This is the very definition of A Circular Argument.

Meanwhile, using the pedigree method which is using empirical data and observed mutation rates results in ages in the very recent past, within the last 7,000 years. It paints a very Biblical picture, see here https://7d6k.forumotion.com/t16-pedigree-based-dating-method-put-mteve-at-about-6500-years-old


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mitochondrial_molecular_clock#Pedigree_vs._phylogeny_comparison